Publishing Industry: Hot Take or Conspiracy Theory?

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David Gwyn: [00:00:00] Hey, everyone, and welcome to a new kind of episode of the Thriller 101 podcast. 

Today, we're going to talk about the industry as I understand it. I'm going to share some hard truths about publishing, and then I'm going to end with a special offer only for Thriller 101 followers. I'm David Gwyn, an agent and writer navigating the world of traditional publishing.

During this second season of the Thriller 101 podcast, we're going to continue our focus on building the skills necessary to write the kinds of thrillers that land you an agent and readers. During this season, I'll be sharing some insights while also talking to agents, authors, and other publishing professionals about the best way to write a novel.

If you want the Expert Secrets, thriller 1 0 1 is where you're going to find them. I wanna spend more time in season two talking to you. One-on-one. I'm gonna share episodes where we dive deep into the arts and business of writing thriller mystery crime and suspense novels. Today we've got a topic that is, well, it's honest and truthful, but it's also a [00:01:00] little bit depressing.

It's the reality of the publishing world, and I wanna make sure we are all on the same page. I'm also going to share a bit about my own experiences in publishing and then stick around till the end because like I said, I have that special offer for you that might be just what you need to get over the hump in your writing journey.

 So make sure you stick around for that. Okay, here's the deal. If you've been listening to me for a while, you know, I interview a lot of authors and agents. Now, what I'm about to share is my understanding of the industry as it is right now. I don't claim to know everything, but here's my educated guess based on the conversations I've had with authors and agents, both for the podcast and offline after I stopped recording.

This is really the inside scoop. What I've come to understand is that editors are moving around a lot. Some are leaving the industry, some are just hopping from one publisher to the next. So time on submission for authors is taking longer than it used to. Editors are swamped. They're reading and working as [00:02:00] fast as they can, but they can barely keep up.

Now, being on sub has always been its own process, but from what I hear from both experienced and new authors, the current wait times are brutal. Even authors who are earning out their contracts, meaning they're making money for the publisher, they aren't necessarily getting their next book deals with that publisher, so they're going back out on sub with their second or even third book. They're having to shop around their manuscripts. And that means. When you get out on sub with your debut, you're up against some stiff competition. I can speak for myself when I say that this feels so different from what many of us imagined the publishing industry would be like.

It's a weird time in publishing right now. A lot of authors are hanging out on submission longer than they used to, and this has a trickle down effect on the industry. And this is where I get to my guess about what's happening. Because there is a trickle down effect happening. 

I'd say put on your tinfoil hats for my conspiracy theory, but when I [00:03:00] explain it, I think you're going to be with me. So, I'm not going to say who, but I had a fascinating conversation with an author. It was a very much offline conversation. We talked about the industry for a while, and this author said something interesting. Something that stuck with me, and I think was the last piece to put all this together for me. This author had the feeling, again, no hard data here, that agents were signing more writers than they used to. So that got me thinking, if editors are taking longer with submissions on sub, then agents would need to sign more authors to get more books on submission because it's taking longer for them to earn an income, right?

I mean, that's how agents make money is by selling books. So if authors are waiting around on sub, then so are their agents. This in turn makes the lines on submission even longer because agents are putting more of their authors that they've signed on submission. I want to be really clear here.

I don't think anyone's to blame. It's just the [00:04:00] reality of the process that we're in right now. Okay, so if you're with me so far and that seems logical, then I want to talk about a realistic timeline if you're someone who is either sending queries right now or you're about to start sending queries. So here's a rough timeline as I understand it.

Let me know what you think. If you're querying, you'll wait six to eight weeks to hear back from an agent. Let's call it eight weeks to be safe. I know some agents now say that it'll take even longer or that they just won't respond at all. So let's say you hear from that agent at the end of those eight weeks.

So in October, early November of 2024, an agent gets back to you and they ask for a full request. Congratulations. A full request is a big deal. So you get a full request and then agents can take three to six months to get back to you. Let's say it's three months on the low end. You're a great writer. So they want you.

That's the end of January or early February, 2025. After getting their offer of representation, you'll wait [00:05:00] two weeks to hear back from other agents. That's kind of the standard grace period between getting an offer from an agent and signing a contract.

Whoever you end up signing with, congratulations, you signed with your agent in April. Your agent might want you to do some edits, which could take another few weeks or even months. I know some do edits and some don't. Some want full rewrites.

Others don't. Let's just say it's four weeks, which I think is on the low side, but it could be less than it could be more. 

From there, you might be on submission for nine months to a year. That's what everyone's saying right now. I know experienced authors who are sitting on submission. So let's say nine months, and that's probably average. I mean, some obviously get picked up right away, and some take longer than nine months.

So this gets us to

January of 2026. So then there's the editing process with the publisher. And that's another gray area, which obviously has some variables. Things like publisher size and the number of the editor's projects that they're working on at the time.

But [00:06:00] you're probably talking about two rounds of edits with your editor and then one with a copy editor. Sometimes they're the same person. But From what I've come to understand, three rounds of edits with a publisher is pretty standard. So, I mean, depending on the publisher and how busy the editor is, there's a lot of factors, but 

it's fair to say you're deep into 2026 when your book is finally ready for publication, but does that mean it's gonna hit shelves right away? Not at all. Your book then gets put on the publisher's calendar. This could mean another six to twelve months that you're waiting before it actually hits the shelves.

Again, it depends on the publisher. Smaller publishers tend to turn around books a little bit more quickly. Larger publishers have longer lead times. you could be waiting for a while if you're with one of the big five. 

I mean, I've seen publishers marketplace deals for books over a year before publication. So realistically, you're looking at your book being released sometime between July of 2026 and February of 2027. I mean, again, these are averages, but you get the point. [00:07:00] Now imagine you were applying for a job and I told you, you'd start in February of 2027.

It's insane, right? Yeah. Yeah. But that's the world we live in as writers who want to be traditionally published. Again, I'm not blaming anyone, I think this is just how it is. So did I just tell you all that to make it really sad and depressing? No. I told you all that because I want to help you.

And there's really only one way that I can help you. Here it is. Let's go all the way back to the beginning. You're about to start querying or maybe you've already started. What if I said that in just a few weeks I could guarantee you multiple full requests? I could knock that six to eight weeks down to maybe two weeks.

What would that feel like? Now I know when I was querying I would have given anything for that, but I want to help this community. You all have been here with me since the beginning and I've learned some things along the way. I'm certainly not a publishing genius, but through working on [00:08:00] this podcast, I've read a lot of pitches and first pages from authors because of the pitch contest that we run through Thriller 101.

And I've talked to a lot of authors and agents, and in this time, I think I've figured out a framework that works. One that I haven't seen people talking about enough. So here's my offer. I'm a teacher and I'm on summer break right now, and I want to take just a few of you as founding members of a new program.

It is going to cost some money, but it's going to be the smallest amount I can feasibly charge based on my time and the costs associated with this process. Not only that. You'll be able to earn some of your money back by going through the program and completing tasks along the way. I'm all about gamifying the experience, and I'll talk more about that in a later episode, but 

 In just a few weeks, I believe I can help you get full requests. I can't guarantee a publishing deal or signing with an agent. No one can. But I'm confident about the full requests. And if I don't deliver, I'll give [00:09:00] you all your money back. This founding member opportunity is limited. You and I and the other founding members will build it as we go and you'll help shape the program.

By the end, you'll have those full requests. If you're serious about making this summer the summer you land your agent, check the link in the description and just let me know you're interested. This is not a sign up. This is not a binding contract. I just want to know if people are interested.

That's it. So if you're interested, I'll reach out and see if we're the right fit. Remember every day that you don't sign with an agent is another day you push back your book release. Let's speed up this timeline the only way I know how. More full requests. If you're ready to query, let's make this happen together.

Head to the link in the description and let's see if it makes sense. Thanks for listening. I can't wait to help you on your journey. If you're not ready to query or you're going to go the normal querying route, I wish you the best of luck. I firmly believe publishing happens to the people who don't [00:10:00] give up.

So keep at it and keep writing. Stay tuned for more episodes where we dive into the art and business of writing thrillers. Until next time, keep writing, keep pitching and keep believing in your story.